GlobalData, a pioneering data and analytics company has opined that India’s GDP growth rate is forecasted to witness a V-shaped recovery with 9.27% growth in 2021.
Declining COVID-19 Rates
The recovery is bolstered by the rising demand for goods and services and revival of major economic sectors occasioned by declining rates of COVID-19 infections.
COVID-19 cases have experienced a declining trend since mid-September 2020. The recovery rate is high at 96.5% while the death rate is a minimal 1.4%. India’s recent drive for mass vaccinations is further expected to breathe new life to a variety of other major sectors such as entertainment, hospitality and transportation.
An Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, Gargi Rao, says: “India’s economy will be the fastest growing economy with 9.72% growth rate compared to other major economies such as China (8.65%), France (6.23%), the UK (5.46%) and the US (3.96%) in 2021. The easing of restrictions along with a huge fiscal stimulus from the government has resulted in marginally better performance of PMI—manufacturing and services since August 2020.”
Data from GlobalData reveals that India’s GDP growth witnessed the worst devolution of -23.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020. It’s expected to hit the threshold of -1.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020 and finally grow about 0:56% year-on-year in Q1 2021 on the back of government’s focus on reviving the domestic demand during the festive season coupled with the boost given to agriculture and allied sectors under the Atmanirbhar Bharath Scheme.
According to Rao, India’s business and other key macroeconomic indicators in short and medium-term are set to witness V-shaped recovery. The upcoming budget 2021 may further boost healthcare value chains. This is likely to improve services and pharma sectors along with infrastructure, which will help in the revival of economic activities.”